Archive for Bayesian

The Silver Standard

Posted in Revolution with tags , , , , , , on March 9, 2016 by rgwallace

Ministry of InformationDid Secretary of Fracking Hillary Clinton lose Michigan in part because she supports the economic model that poisons water at home and abroad? Maybe. The connection struck me (as I learned later it had others).

But Bernie Sanders’s primary upset in Michigan, busting many a prediction, including FiveThirtyEight’s pooled polling model, clearly unveiled loaded epistemologies.

A number of oppositional wags–funny but accurate–have characterized polling in the U.S. as testing whether voters have adequately assimilated ruling class propaganda. That is, at heart all polls are push polls, part and parcel of managing expectation. Until they don’t.

A couple years ago, suffering a case of World Cup fever, I wrote three short paragraphs on Nate Silver, pointing out the Bayesian  on which his shop depends can be saddled with the premises of power, a problem far beyond mere technical disagreements.

The politics of the nomenklatura–rolling over systemic prime directives one time interval to another in the face of what it dismisses as stochastic noise–can be found down in the very mechanics of statistical modeling.

But what happens when the rest of the world begins to make itself matter? Do the models break down from more than just bad priors and missed predictions?

Goliathian Priors

Posted in Revolution with tags , , , , , , , , on June 22, 2014 by rgwallace

Ghana GermanyEven on fútbol Nate Silver panders to power, predicting the winners will win. He’s the statistical Malcolm Gladwell, the latter, despite his new book, already on record disparaging successful underdogs as metaphysically unfair.

As if contingencies and sudden regime shifts, to reference Slavoj Žižek‘s Hegel, aren’t themselves universal necessities (well beyond the power of Silver’s Bayesian).

And to which the revolutionary toasts the Ghanas and Costa Ricas a beer or three, minding Alain Badiou’s Paris Commune, wherein the truth upon the world’s contested pitches changes the very predicates of circumstance.

A Bayesian Market

Posted in Evolution with tags , , , , , , , , on April 24, 2011 by rgwallace

Found this job posting:

Your research will cover any area of evolutionary biology, including adaptation, phylogenetics, population genetics and environmental genomics. You should be using advanced data acquisition and/or analytical approaches (e.g., high-throughput sequencing or other “omics”, Bayesian statistics, bioinformatics).

I have no prima facie quarrel with the omics or the Bayesian, both of which I have used. Nor do I object to an interview process with criteria. No smelly sociopathic ecologists need apply.

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